Some people say that it is not important to understand the economy, as long as there is data, accounting volume, you can make a grand argument for the current economic situation.Without data, there is no economic paper, and it may have become a common knowledge in the domestic economic community.Looking around the articles in today's leading economic journals, articles without data support have basically withdrawn from the historical stage, and pure text is even rare, even if it is a financial report, it is necessary to list a lot of data to show professionalism.We have to lament that there is no tool in the world that speaks more about the economy than data.Needless to say, the importance of data to economic research, but the use of any tool must be moderate, too little, and now this state of data-dependent research has even developed into a pathological state, and must be brought to our attention.
What is "data dependence"?
When today's economics tutors coach their masters and PhDs on how to write economics papers, they often refer to data issues.For example, we often hear arguments between mentors and students: "Students say that I found a problem in observation, which I think should look like this, which is my conjecture, but which I think logically makes sense and can be studied as a proposition."At this time, the teacher said, you think is right, I agree with you, but how do you prove it?What data do you want to use to prove it, if you don't have good data, I think you'd better change the topic!"In the eyes of many teachers, what students can do now is to find data that can prove their views, without data, don't think about it, and why it's useful.To borrow the concept of medicine, we can call this data-only thinking method in economic research "dependence."
The so-called "data dependence" is actually an inertial way of thinking that economic research (theses) cannot be done without data.Without data, economic research cannot be done, is the basic understanding of economists suffering from data "dependence" of today's economic research.They often argue that even propositions that do not have any objections in terms of text or logical reasoning are untenable without strong data support.Data "dependent" patients are increasingly distrustful of logical reasoning and even skeptical of the derivation of some models.Most of them want to have a lot of complex regression equations and significant regression results in their articles, rather than rigorous logical analysis, perhaps to make the paper more ornamental and beautiful.Of course, it is not wrong to value data itself, but they start to reduce the need for economic models and economic logic, mostly using new data to test the universality of others' models or verify that some data conform to the laws of that model.It's simple, it's tangible, it's impeccable.But it also suggests that data-dependent patients have, to a certain extent, treated economics as a technology no longer a science.Using existing data, applying other people's models and not having their own ideas, they're starting to become downright craftsmen and technicians.
It is worth noting that this is not to disparage the use of large amounts of data for economic research, but to discuss with some data-only theorists where data should occupy economic research.Many people may not agree with the data-first approach, but in practice they have to focus on data analysis and then put together the corresponding theoretical models and logical foundations.This practice is very common, I have heard many doctors complain that now domestic journals do not know what is wrong, and most of the articles sent out are a pile of data to prove some old ideas and propositions that can no longer be obsolete.Some even say that an academic madman at a famous university business school in China, using different data in turn to prove that a problem has published dozens of papers, and its use of data fascination is truly breathtaking.However, the doctors' complaints are not the main aspect of the situation, on the contrary, they also have to abide by this rule, and without data, they will make their articles appear groundless and shallow.The domestic academic community no longer seems to believe that anyone can prove economic problems without data, let alone that Chinese scholars can write insightful models.Economics papers are increasingly pursuing formalization, copying beautiful models, overusing data, trying to make the article look good and standardized, but it doesn't really make much sense, groans without disease, and does research for beautiful papers.Data dependence is not wrong, the use of data to pursue rigorous economic norms is not wrong, but data supremacy, resulting in so many problems, the pursuit of data is reversed.Data and data analysis can only be used as a tool to test economic theory, at best an important tool and method, it can not and does not replace the basic position of economic thought, economic theory and economic logic in economic research.
Data Dependence and False Propositions
In fact, the important role of data in economic research has been around for a long time, not recently.In the context of economic development, even the most classical economists have traces of their claims by describing economic data.For example, Sima Qian, an ancient Chinese historian, used a lot of space to describe the nature of data to illustrate the economic problems he recognized.There are countless examples of data descriptions in the writings of modern and contemporary Western economists, and Marx's Capital is a very good example.Careful study will find that economists use data to prove their ideas and inference, and most of the time, it is accompanied by the development of the entire economic theory.It must be admitted that data plays an irreplaceable role in the process of arguing economic problems, which may be the source of data dependence in today's economic world.
Propositions need data to verify, and propositions that can withstand data testing are true propositions, which is an indisputable fact.This does not mean that everything derived from data is reliable, and the role of data is irreplaceable, but it is not omnipotent.Even if the entire data calculation process seems flawless, we can't say that the conclusions drawn from it are realistic.Propositions in economics are more about the interpretation and argumentation of real economic problems than the study of the data itself, which has practical significance only by giving corresponding economic attributes.There may be many sets of data that can be used to prove an economic proposition, but a very detailed analysis of any set of data or groups of data may not necessarily lead to the discovery of this economic proposition.The laws of the data may be numerical, not necessarily economic.Therefore, the use of data should be said to be a relatively advanced technology in the process of economic research, should be careful, if you are not careful, there may be false propositions, that is, data calculation conclusions are not in line with the actual situation.Perhaps this is why the aforementioned practice of using old models to test common sense problems with new data sets has become popular, because it is neither wrong nor risky.
In general, normal economic problems are studied in the order of hypotheses, propositions, or conjectures, then mathematical derivation proof and logical analysis, and if theoretical logic can pass the internal contradiction test (i.e., there is no contradiction in theory itself).One might ask, aren't many economic theories derived from data observations?In the end, they all proved to be right.The problem is precisely this: even if some relevant theoretical speculation is first discovered in the data, the above process must be repeated, and the performance of the data cannot be hastily concluded to be the essence of the economy.Many economic false propositions arise from the lack of this process.
In fact, false propositions are not the cause of economic data, but the illusion of overreliance on data.Data is a description of economic phenomena, each of which has its own characteristics.Just like maps, maps with different functions on different scales have their own characteristics.The economic system is much more complex than the earth, which is why ordinary people can use maps to understand the earth, and only specially trained people can understand the economic information through economic data.
The complexity of how the economy works in reality can be far greater than we think, so the idea of how many economic laws can be discovered from some of these economic data is delusional.Although data analysis can often inspire us to think closer to economic law, it is only a way to the nature of the economy, not the key to economic secrets.