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2021-10-19 07:39:59 | onclick: | We should deeply understand the changes brought about by carbon neutralization |
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With the national deployment and promotion of carbon neutralization, carbon neutralization has become a more hot topic. Many government departments and enterprises are thinking and studying how to achieve carbon peak and how to achieve carbon neutralization? Many articles and reports say how much renewable energy will increase, how much oil and coal consumption will decrease, and how much new technologies such as hydrogen energy new energy vehicles will be applied by 2060. However, at present, many actions reported on carbon neutralization are at the general level of work. Many people do not see that carbon neutralization will revolutionize the economy and society.
Realizing carbon neutralization will not only bring changes in macro figures, but also significant changes in structure, form and operation mode in many industries due to the requirements of carbon neutralization. There are also many risks and challenges in this process! The following is an analysis of several industries that are most important to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.
The energy industry is undoubtedly the most crucial industry to achieve carbon neutrality. Under the goal of carbon neutrality, the energy industry will transform to green and low-carbon. At the same time, it is very important that as more and more wind power and solar energy are connected to the power grid at the distribution end, the energy and power system will be reshaped. Chen Xinhua, chairman of the Coordination Committee of the International Gas Union (IGU), pointed out in the article "looking forward to 2060 and embracing the new era of energy": power development should change from "electricity from afar" to "electricity from around". Although there is still some debate on this view in the energy industry, it must be seen that carbon neutralization will lead to essential changes in the power system. Jeremy Rifkin, an American social prophet, explained this well in his book the third industrial revolution. He believes that in the future society, everyone can generate electricity through solar panels and small fans on his family and unit houses, and is an energy producer; At the same time, everyone will use electricity in production and life. They are energy consumers. He thinks that the future power grid is different from the centralized control now, and the "distributed intelligent network" will become the main body of the power grid. "Distributed intelligent network" is an "energy Internet" that collects and distributes the power produced by tens of thousands of micro power plants to users. This power grid will also adopt two-way information and intelligent technology, so it is a "distributed intelligent network". The energy system based on energy Internet is not only the transformation from fossil energy to clean and renewable energy, but also a revolution in energy production and use.
At present, the transportation industry is a field with large greenhouse gas emissions. The carbon emissions in the global transportation field mainly involve many departments such as highway, railway, aviation and shipping, and the carbon emissions account for about 24% of the global total. Moreover, burning gasoline or diesel in the use of motor vehicles not only emits carbon dioxide that has a direct impact on climate change, but also emits harmful gases such as carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, particles and soot, which are the main culprits of air pollution. By converting to electric vehicles, the automotive industry achieves carbon neutrality, which is not only conducive to coping with climate change, but also conducive to reducing air pollution and reducing damage to people's health. Moreover, the electrification of motor vehicles will also be closely combined with driverless technology supported by artificial intelligence, big data and the Internet of things, so as to create a new business form of the automobile industry. Some experts say that the future car is equal to artificial intelligence + new energy. The future new energy driverless car uses electricity, hydrogen or solar energy as power and is controlled by artificial intelligence. Such a car not only saves energy, does not emit greenhouse gases and will not cause too much pressure on the environment, but also people can work, rest, watch movies and listen to music for leisure and entertainment during driving. Some EU countries and Britain have banned the sale of fuel vehicles since 2025, that is, five years later. It is believed that more countries will ban and eliminate fuel vehicles in the future. In 1886, German engineer Carl Benz manufactured the world's first three wheeled vehicle powered by gasoline. In the next 20 to 30 years, fuel vehicles will withdraw from the stage of history. The impact of carbon neutralization on transportation industry and human life is historic.
The construction industry will also undergo major changes with the promotion of carbon neutralization. Buildings are the main places for human activities, but in the process of construction and use, buildings consume a lot of resources and energy, and the greenhouse gas emissions account for about 40% of the world. The construction industry plays a key role in realizing carbon neutralization, and the future construction will be very different from the present. Buildings should not only change to green, low-carbon or even zero carbon, but also change the design, construction and use of buildings, and even the concept of demolition. Because the future building is not only a structure for people to live and work, it may also be "a power plant". The photovoltaic power generation panels and fans arranged on the building will generate power to supply the building itself, and the excess power will be output to the power grid. The building ground source heat pump can make the shallow or deep geothermal become the source of people's heating, air conditioning or domestic hot water. Different buildings and power plants are connected together, which is the energy Internet, and buildings are "nodes of the energy Internet of things". This energy Internet, combined with the Internet of things, artificial intelligence and big data, monitors and analyzes the energy production and consumption of buildings in different periods of time and seasons every day, and regulates the intelligent use of energy. The building has become a huge human "data acquisition terminal". Architecture is no longer just the traditional product of ancient "civil engineering". Its function and form will be greatly developed and innovated in the future.
At the same time, financial markets will focus on carbon neutrality by shifting funds from fossil fuels to sustainable assets such as renewable energy. The rating of fossil fuels has been continuously lowered, and the fossil fuels: heavy energy stocks in the S & P index have fallen below 3% from 13% a decade ago. In contrast, investors are investing heavily in renewable energy stocks, and S & P clean energy's shares rose 138% in 2020. China's stock market is also clearly reflecting this change. On January 8, 2021, the share price of Ningde times, the leader of domestic new energy vehicle battery, reached 42499 yuan in the intraday trading, with a market value of 989.8 billion yuan. The market value of Ningde era has increased more than 12 times in less than three years. The market value of PetroChina, which used to be the first in China's A-share market value, has fallen below 800 billion. The market value of PetroChina reached US $1.24 trillion at the peak in 2007. According to the exchange rate at that time, it exceeded RMB 9 trillion, and the assets shrank greatly compared with before and after.
This leads to the problem of stranded assets. Stranded assets are assets that cannot be used and must be depreciated due to backward technology within the normal service life. If they are disposed of, the enterprise will inevitably suffer losses. A report by Citigroup analyzes the huge financial risks facing the oil, coal and gas industries. The fossil fuel industry has more than $100 trillion of stranded assets, including pipelines, ports, power plants and offshore drilling platforms, which will soon be eliminated. The report of "carbon tracking plan", a think tank in the field of energy in London, pointed out that the sharp drop in the price of solar and wind power "will inevitably lead to the stranded assets of enterprises of trillions of dollars and hit the oil producing countries that cannot transform themselves". At the same time, "inexperienced investors who ignore the speed of energy transformation will face trillions of dollars of capital risk". Carbon neutralization will bring earth shaking changes to the market. Some industries and enterprises will become trendsetters in the future market, while others will face major risks and challenges.
Do not only regard carbon neutralization as a work required by the state. The government, enterprises and society should conduct in-depth research and Analysis on the future progress of carbon neutralization. Without seeing the revolutionary changes and challenges brought by carbon neutralization, it will be difficult to make steady progress in the historic process of carbon neutralization. People, enterprises, societies and countries that can effectively grasp the development trend of carbon neutrality and seize the opportunity of human transformation to green, low-carbon and zero carbon can be invincible in the future!
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