Achieving carbon neutrality (i.e. net zero greenhouse gas emissions) and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy will not only change the future energy, economic and social status of mankind, but also change the relationship between major powers and reshape the global geopolitical pattern. More than 200 years since the first industrial revolution, the acquisition and use of fossil fuels have largely determined the rise and fall of world powers. Britain has become the birthplace of the industrial revolution and the "sun never sets Empire" because of its rich coal mines and the invention of steam engines and other machinery that use coal efficiently. The use of oil and natural gas in the second industrial revolution shaped the "American Century", created the United States on the "rolling wheels", and also gave the United States a strong military force to rewrite the global economic and geopolitical pattern. In the future, the decarbonization transformation of countries all over the world will become one of the main factors to reshape Geopolitics in the 21st century.

However, history will not simply repeat, and the new carbon neutralization will not be the same as in the past. Two experts from Wilson Center in the United States gave new features of carbon neutralization. First, carbon neutralization is not just an energy supplement, but an energy substitution. After oil replaced coal as the world's main energy supply source in the 1960s, coal is still widely used all over the world. However, achieving carbon neutralization requires reducing fossil fuel consumption to an absolute minimum, and most fossil fuels will no longer be used.

Secondly, this energy transformation is much faster than the previous energy transformation. Vaclav SMIL, an energy historian, pointed out that in the previous transformation, it took more than 50 years for a new energy to achieve "extensive penetration". The transformation of that era was mainly because new energy was cheaper or more useful to end users, and the "invisible hand" of the market was working. However, today's transformation to clean and green energy is task driven, because mankind must achieve carbon neutrality in the next 30 years or so in order to avoid disasters and shocks caused by climate change.

According to the assessment of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC), in order to have more than 66% chance to control the warming rate at 1.5 ° C or lower than that before the industrial revolution, the world must achieve carbon neutrality in the next 30 years. To control the temperature rise within 2 ° C, it is also necessary to achieve net zero emission by 2070 or 2080. At present, low-carbon energy accounts for only about 15% of the global energy structure. Therefore, human society must decarbonize rapidly.

There has never been such a short period of energy adjustment in history. The rapid development of clean and renewable energy will change the power and influence of many countries and regions and redraw the geopolitical map of the 21st century. In order to analyze and deal with the impact of energy transformation on global geopolitics, the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena) convened and established a global committee chaired by Ó lafur gr í msson, former president of Iceland, to conduct research and issue the report "a new world: Geopolitics of energy transformation". The report believes that energy transformation will change the global power distribution and inter state relations, lead to geopolitical instability and increase the risk of conflict.

Rand Corporation, an American think tank, is very famous in geopolitical simulation prediction. In the 1950s, Rand Corporation and the U.S. Department of defense designed military exercises to simulate the security scenario of the two-line operation between the United States and China and Russia, and the results were commendable. Recently, Rand Corporation used this kind of geopolitical simulation toolkit to analyze how clean energy will change the world geopolitical pattern. Rand's results divide different countries in the future carbon neutralization race into three categories: the first category is composed of countries such as Iceland, which have completed the transformation, and the transformation to renewable energy has almost no negative impact on them. The second category is the countries that rely on oil exports, which suffer the most. The third category of countries is not only a producer of fossil fuels, but also a consumer of fossil fuels. These countries are faced with contradictory choices, trying to decarbonize their economies, while hoping to maximize the income from oil, natural gas and coal exports. However, if such countries cannot firmly take the road of carbon neutrality, they may also become countries with failed transformation.

Carbon neutralization will change the economic, political and military strength of different countries, as well as the pattern of international relations and strategic resources. It will not only provide a new way for world peace and stability, but also make the international order unstable or even chaotic due to the sudden change of current international relations. Some countries may benefit from new geopolitics. At present, countries importing a large number of fossil fuels will reduce their dependence on exporting countries and improve their trade balance. If it can seize the initiative and develop clean and renewable energy systems, it will become a leader in the new international pattern. The decline in fossil fuel demand may seriously impact those countries that are not fully prepared. Those fossil fuel producing countries that fail to achieve economic diversification in advance may fall into instability. Among them, countries with weak governance capacity may lead to social division and conflict with the sharp reduction of oil revenue.

As an important driving force, the transition to carbon neutrality may have a different impact on the world's major powers and redefine the competition among major powers in the 21st century. Irena predicts that the shale gas industry that has just sprung up in the United States may collapse, and the importance of the United States to establish alliances and military bases in the Middle East will be weakened. The European Green deal was launched earlier. The European Union and Britain, which attach great importance to sustainable development, can successfully achieve climate neutrality in 2050, create new opportunities for economic and industrial development, and be in a favorable position in the global geopolitical pattern in the future. At present, about 60% of solar panels are produced by Chinese enterprises. China's leading position in renewable energy manufacturing industry will create huge trade advantages and expand new development space for it in the future.

A recent study by the British think tank carbon tracker found that if the global climate target is achieved, the oil and gas revenues of 40 fossil fuel dependent countries will decline by an average of 51%. As an "energy superpower" in the oil and gas era, Russia will be severely challenged. For most oil exporting countries such as the Middle East and South America, the national finance will be unable to make ends meet for a long time, and may fall into social unrest or even civil war.

The transformation brought about by carbon neutralization can be said to be the biggest geopolitical transformation since the end of World War II. I hope mankind can make a smooth transition.