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| 2021-10-15 07:56:55 | onclick： | The Enlightenment of Turing prize winners' comments on the Nobel Prize in Economics |
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As the last award issued, it is also a controversial award. This year, the Nobel Prize in economics was finally issued. Half of its bonus was awarded to economists Joshua D. Angrist and Guido w. imbens in recognition of "their methodological contribution to causality analysis". Causal reasoning is an important research direction of artificial intelligence (AI). Causal reasoning has good interpretability, and there are many researchers.
Judea pearl, a famous AI expert, sent a message on social media to congratulate the three winners. Judea pearl is a big expert in causal reasoning. His causal reasoning algorithms such as Bayesian network have made great contributions to the development of AI, so he won the Turing Award in 2011. However, after the polite words of congratulations, pearl bluntly pointed out that the research of the two new Nobel Laureates in economics violated the two basic laws of causal reasoning.
Because causal reasoning won the Nobel Prize in economics and violated the two basic laws of causal reasoning, is this not contradictory? In terms of causal reasoning, Angrist and imbens are obviously not as professional as pearl, so pearl said they don't understand causal reasoning, which is obviously reasonable. However, in economics, these two economists are obviously more professional than Turing Award winners. They don't win Turing Award, but economics award, which also makes sense. From this seemingly contradictory phenomenon, we can give us the following two enlightenment.
First, cross-border innovation is very important. Although Angrist and imbens are not big experts in causal reasoning, they have made important progress in applying causal reasoning to economics and explained many economic phenomena. Although there is no clear theoretical contribution to causal reasoning, it is an important contribution to the development of economics. There are many artificial intelligence methods, which may also be cross-border innovation with economics. The difficulty of cross-border innovation is not small. It is difficult for artificial intelligence experts to understand economic theory, and it is not easy for economists to learn artificial intelligence methods.
Second, initiative is important. Nobel prizes are generally awarded only to experts who put forward a theory for the first time, not to experts who improve and develop later. The two economists cooperated to start this research very early. According to the search, they first published relevant papers in 1995 and 1996 [1-2], which were widely cited. The following economists may have further improved their research, studied causal reasoning more deeply and achieved richer results. However, the Nobel prize only recognizes the first research, and it is difficult to win the prize no matter how good it is to follow the research. Fortunately, the two experts did not wait to become artificial intelligence experts of causal reasoning to carry out economic causal reasoning research, otherwise they would have to watch the Nobel Prize fall into others' homes.
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